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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 11 01:52:01 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 11 01:52:01 UTC 2026.
September 10, 2026 — 21:51 EDT
SPC Sep 11, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The threat for widely scattered large hail and a few severe wind gusts is expected to continue through the remainder of the evening into tonight over the southern Texas Panhandle into the South Plains of Texas. Isolated damaging wind gusts appear possible over the Mid-South and vicinity tonight. ...Texas Panhandle into the South Plains of Texas... A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms, including supercells, is ongoing this evening between Amarillo and Lubbock amidst a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, per the 00Z Amarillo sounding. Hail in excess of two inches was reported earlier this evening near Amarillo with a more recent wind gust of 65 mph near Plainview. There is some signal in water vapor imagery for a weak disturbance moving into the northern TX Panhandle, which may aid in sustaining the ongoing storms through 03-05Z with a continued risk for large hail and a few severe wind gusts. ...Mid-South... Surface analysis indicates a convectively modified front from west-central AR into middle TN, with a pocket of locally stronger instability (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg) near and to the north of the boundary, per latest mesoanalysis. Forcing associated with a subtle mid-level disturbance moving through south-central MO is contributing to a gradual increase in storm coverage this evening over far southeast MO into northeast AR. Time-lagged HRRR and RRFS ensemble data suggest that a further increase in storm coverage is possible late this evening into tonight over northern AR and southeast MO into portions of northwest TN and western KY. Regional VWPs indicate 0-6 km shear up to 30-35 kt, which may be sufficient to support episodic storm organization with an associated risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Mead.. 09/11/2026 Read more
September 10, 2026 — 20:48 EDT
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