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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 1 17:56:02 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 1 17:56:02 UTC 2026.
November 1, 2026 — 12:55 EST
SPC Nov 1, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes will become a concern across much of New Mexico into the southern/central High Plains from late this afternoon through tonight. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur with convection across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening. ...Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains... Extensive cloud cover remains prevalent over much of AZ/NM into the southern/central High Plains this morning, as low/mid-level moisture continues to spread over these regions downstream of highly amplified upper troughing extending across the West Coast. Multiple embedded mid-level perturbations and a strong mid/upper-level subtropical jet will overspread the Southwest and adjacent southern/central High Plains through tonight. A pronounced low-level mass response is forecast across the southern/central High Plains late tonight, with greater low-level moisture expected to stream northward across these regions. Still, the primary uncertainty relating to severe potential through the period remains how much destabilization can occur in an otherwise favorably sheared environment. Current expectations are for widespread cloudiness to hinder diurnal heating and the development of instability to some degree through the late afternoon, although some cloud breaks remain possible given recent trends in visible satellite imagery across NM. The tropical source region for the enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow overspreading the Southwest will also limit mid-level lapse rates, with consensus of latest guidance suggesting they will remain near moist adiabatic through much of the troposphere. Even with these potential thermodynamic limitations, there will probably be enough weak boundary-layer instability in place by late afternoon across western/central NM to support surface-based convection. A broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms should develop across eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z as a lead mid-level shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the Southwest. While MLCAPE may only reach the 250-750 J/kg range, strongly veering and increasing flow with height through low/mid-levels will support ample deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. An increasing threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes remains apparent as this convection spreads quickly east-northeastward through the evening, with some potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. Greater low-level moisture (low 60s surface dewpoints) and related instability will be present across parts of the southern/central High Plains this evening and overnight, and an increasing threat for severe winds and a few tornadoes will likely exist across these regions given the continued presence of favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. This threat will likely continue through the end of the period (early Monday morning) across the OK/TX Panhandles into portions of southwest KS and western OK. Across southern/central AZ, an isolated severe wind and tornado threat may also develop this afternoon behind the initial/lead shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms should form as large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper trough overspreads this region. While instability is expected to remain limited given ongoing clouds/precipitation, above-average low-level moisture and strong shear may aid organized convection and some severe risk. Have maintained the Marginal Risk across southern/central AZ to account for this possibility, but confidence in higher coverage of severe thunderstorms was too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ...South Florida... Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across south FL in association with a weak mid-level wave. The 12Z observed sounding from MFL showed modest winds through low/mid levels and weak deep-layer shear, but cool temperatures at mid/upper levels. This may support occasionally strong convection capable of producing gusty winds this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms still appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Chalmers.. 11/01/2026 Read more
November 1, 2026 — 11:31 EST
SPC Nov 1, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats. ...Synopsis... A deep but initially disorganized upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to amplify considerably as several subtropical and polar stream disturbances coalesce Monday into Monday night. An 80+ kt subtropical speed max, and an associated shortwave trough, will rapidly move northeastward from eastern NM and CO to the Missouri Valley by Monday evening. Strong ascent will deepen a lee low below 1000 mb across NE/SD, with a trailing cold front that will move into western NE and KS before surging eastward overnight. A dryline and lee trough will extend roughly from central KS into western OK and west-central TX aided by a secondary shortwave trough moving from the Four Corners into TX and western OK. As this feature gradually becomes neutral/negatively tilted, robust height falls (12-15 DAM/12hrs) will overspread the Plains sustaining a 50-60 kt low-level jet aiding northward advection of widespread mid 60s F surface dewpoints. ...TX/OK/KS... In the wake of a round of morning storms associated with the passing subtropical shortwave, a narrow corridor of robust surface heating should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s F immediately ahead of the dryline from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS and western OK. This should allow for scattered thunderstorm development and maturation with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg late Monday afternoon. 60-80 kt mid-level flow overspreading the dryline will support robust deep-layer shear profiles (effective shear 45-60 kt) favorable for organized severe storms. A narrow zone of semi-discrete supercell potential is evident near the dryline late in the day, with some hail, a few tornadoes and damaging wind possible. Despite the strong shear, the impact of a mixed convective mode and uncertainty on diurnal destabilization across the broader warm sector remains unclear. AIFS ensemble guidance continues to show a secondary low center developing and intensifying beneath the maximum in height falls aloft near the KS/OK border Monday evening. The moist and semi-stratified air mass, along with strong isallobaric flow will support very strong low-level shear with model hodographs showing 0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2. While convective mode is likely to transition to a more linear arrangement as forcing increases, embedded supercellular elements and QLCS circulations will likely persist given the robust shear environment. A few tornadoes (some possibly strong) and severe gusts are possible near the track of the meso low along the KS/OK border into the evening and early overnight hours. ...Eastern KS/MO into NE/IA... Farther north and east, instability is forecast to be limited with residual cloud cover and continuous low-level warm advection expected to temper heating. Still, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent should be adequate for at least weak destabilization amid 60s F surface dewpoints. Very strong low-level shear will be in place much of the day near and south of the deepening surface low. This should continually strengthening through the evening as the upper trough intensifies. Despite the minimal buoyancy, pre-frontal warm air advection storms are possible before consolidation ahead of the surging cold front favors a low-topped narrow QLCS. Poor lapse rates in the low-levels cast uncertainty on the damaging wind potential, but the strong shear and mesovorticies could support a few strong gusts and brief tornadoes into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2026 Read more
November 1, 2026 — 12:35 EST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A minimal overlap of dry/windy conditions will maintain a reduced fire weather threat today. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
November 1, 2026 — 11:43 EST
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